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	<title>Comments on: Morano Analysis #7:  Scientific consensus</title>
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		<title>By: jeangoodwin</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-60</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jeangoodwin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 13:53:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-60</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi, Cedric!  I think that most of the comments argue against the existence of AGW because my blog once was linked from Mark Morano&#039;s popular Climate Depot.  Plus the occasional person on the other side may tend to think of me as &quot;the enemy&quot; and just leave, or send me email.  So thanks for your post--it&#039;s encouraging!

I share your commitment to supporting citizens&#039; engagement with climate issues.  The problem is that I don&#039;t have any special mastery of the science.  If I answered the comments you point to, (a) nobody should believe what I say; and (b) I&#039;d risk losing the debate, thus causing more damage to the cause you support.  Not good!

There are lots of blogs with opinions about climate science, including a few that are worth following--like &lt;a href=&quot;http://judithcurry.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Climate Etc.&lt;/a&gt;, which may be how you got here.  My contribution to public engagement with science (or science literacy) is to deal with how science can be communicated appropriately and effectively, especially in the course of civic controversies.  That&#039;s only a tiny piece of the big puzzle, but it is a piece--I hope.

Finally, when people post comments that are completely irrelevant to the topic of the blog entry they are supposedly responding to--don&#039;t you think they sort of disqualify themselves?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, Cedric!  I think that most of the comments argue against the existence of AGW because my blog once was linked from Mark Morano&#8217;s popular Climate Depot.  Plus the occasional person on the other side may tend to think of me as &#8220;the enemy&#8221; and just leave, or send me email.  So thanks for your post&#8211;it&#8217;s encouraging!</p>
<p>I share your commitment to supporting citizens&#8217; engagement with climate issues.  The problem is that I don&#8217;t have any special mastery of the science.  If I answered the comments you point to, (a) nobody should believe what I say; and (b) I&#8217;d risk losing the debate, thus causing more damage to the cause you support.  Not good!</p>
<p>There are lots of blogs with opinions about climate science, including a few that are worth following&#8211;like <a href="http://judithcurry.com/" rel="nofollow">Climate Etc.</a>, which may be how you got here.  My contribution to public engagement with science (or science literacy) is to deal with how science can be communicated appropriately and effectively, especially in the course of civic controversies.  That&#8217;s only a tiny piece of the big puzzle, but it is a piece&#8211;I hope.</p>
<p>Finally, when people post comments that are completely irrelevant to the topic of the blog entry they are supposedly responding to&#8211;don&#8217;t you think they sort of disqualify themselves?</p>
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		<title>By: Cedric Katesby</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-59</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cedric Katesby]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-59</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;The fact that the scientists are admitting that they don’t know what is causing the current lack of warming??? 
(...)
Exactly, Climategate was enough to kill it for me. The scandals since then merely made the theory even more questionable.
(...)
The IPPC has been proven to have made exaggeration after exaggeration so why should I trust them? If the CRU tainted the data then nothing that relies on it can be trusted.
(...)
Only actual measurements can count as evidence, and on that count the Warmist arguments fail pretty badly IMO.
(...)
The constant refrain of “consensus” was always a falsehood to dominate the argument by an appeal to an non-existant authority. And the debate, in fact, had not been engaged in for 20 years but rather an increasingly shrill scientific complex feeding at government troughs left the rails of science and expected everyone to bow.&lt;/i&gt;

The Climate deniers come out to play on your blog. That is not by chance.
You have created an environment where they feel at home.
I understand that you have a particular focus on communication techniques and you don&#039;t want to go off-topic but you could at least make some token effort to provide rebuttals to denialist talking points as opposed to letting them pass unchallenged.

A scientific consensus is not created by magic. &lt;a href=&quot;http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2010/03/hostility_towards_a_scientific_consensus.php&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;It&#039;s not a secret handshake in some old boy&#039;s club.&lt;/a&gt; The scientific consensus on Climate Change is created the same way as the the scientific consensus on the Theory of Evolution or the scientific consensus on the efficacy of vaccines etc. No short-cuts. No hanky-panky.

The disinformation campaign the sells doubt and smears the reputation of scientists is no different from the Intelligent Design disinformation campaign or the tobacco lobby campaign to convince the public that there was no link between cancer and smoking. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T4UF_Rmlio&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;It&#039;s the same playbook and, in multiple examples, it&#039;s the same money and fake experts.
&lt;/a&gt;

You can both explore what happens when scientists &quot;enter the barnyard&quot; and, in the same breath, clearly and strongly support &lt;a href=&quot;http://climate.nasa.gov/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;good science literacy amongst the public&lt;/a&gt;. I urge you to do more on taking to task &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.skepticalscience.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;denialist talking points&lt;/a&gt; and help promote the scientific position of the global science community.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>The fact that the scientists are admitting that they don’t know what is causing the current lack of warming???<br />
(&#8230;)<br />
Exactly, Climategate was enough to kill it for me. The scandals since then merely made the theory even more questionable.<br />
(&#8230;)<br />
The IPPC has been proven to have made exaggeration after exaggeration so why should I trust them? If the CRU tainted the data then nothing that relies on it can be trusted.<br />
(&#8230;)<br />
Only actual measurements can count as evidence, and on that count the Warmist arguments fail pretty badly IMO.<br />
(&#8230;)<br />
The constant refrain of “consensus” was always a falsehood to dominate the argument by an appeal to an non-existant authority. And the debate, in fact, had not been engaged in for 20 years but rather an increasingly shrill scientific complex feeding at government troughs left the rails of science and expected everyone to bow.</i></p>
<p>The Climate deniers come out to play on your blog. That is not by chance.<br />
You have created an environment where they feel at home.<br />
I understand that you have a particular focus on communication techniques and you don&#8217;t want to go off-topic but you could at least make some token effort to provide rebuttals to denialist talking points as opposed to letting them pass unchallenged.</p>
<p>A scientific consensus is not created by magic. <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2010/03/hostility_towards_a_scientific_consensus.php" rel="nofollow">It&#8217;s not a secret handshake in some old boy&#8217;s club.</a> The scientific consensus on Climate Change is created the same way as the the scientific consensus on the Theory of Evolution or the scientific consensus on the efficacy of vaccines etc. No short-cuts. No hanky-panky.</p>
<p>The disinformation campaign the sells doubt and smears the reputation of scientists is no different from the Intelligent Design disinformation campaign or the tobacco lobby campaign to convince the public that there was no link between cancer and smoking. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T4UF_Rmlio" rel="nofollow">It&#8217;s the same playbook and, in multiple examples, it&#8217;s the same money and fake experts.<br />
</a></p>
<p>You can both explore what happens when scientists &#8220;enter the barnyard&#8221; and, in the same breath, clearly and strongly support <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/" rel="nofollow">good science literacy amongst the public</a>. I urge you to do more on taking to task <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/" rel="nofollow">denialist talking points</a> and help promote the scientific position of the global science community.</p>
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		<title>By: RobinAtl</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-24</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RobinAtl]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Apr 2010 20:07:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-24</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[John,

Thanks, I agree. My biggest fear though is that because the IPCC was initially set up by political figures for political purposes, skeptics may win the science battle (argument that human CO2 emissions will cause catastrophic warming), but lose the political war. In the US it looks like we are about to implement some sort of carbon cap and trade system, potentially by executive order, DESPITE  increasing doubts about the science. Once the Investment Banks, NGOs and UN Have the framework established for a global system to regulate carbon, it could be almost impossible to undo. And once the structure is in place it can relatively easily be adapted to other purposes. I wonder how many of the climate scientists realize they have been playing the role of useful idiots to achieve political goals that they probably aren&#039;t even fully aware of. I tend to agree with James Lovelock. Man is too stupid to save the planet, but too arrogant to avoid killing a lot of people in the developing world while trying. I often tell people that in my business, my clients (Fortune 500 Telecommunications companies) wouldn&#039;t even invest $10M dollars based on the amount of evidence supporting AGW theory. The IPCC and UN are asking us to sign up for trillions!!!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>John,</p>
<p>Thanks, I agree. My biggest fear though is that because the IPCC was initially set up by political figures for political purposes, skeptics may win the science battle (argument that human CO2 emissions will cause catastrophic warming), but lose the political war. In the US it looks like we are about to implement some sort of carbon cap and trade system, potentially by executive order, DESPITE  increasing doubts about the science. Once the Investment Banks, NGOs and UN Have the framework established for a global system to regulate carbon, it could be almost impossible to undo. And once the structure is in place it can relatively easily be adapted to other purposes. I wonder how many of the climate scientists realize they have been playing the role of useful idiots to achieve political goals that they probably aren&#8217;t even fully aware of. I tend to agree with James Lovelock. Man is too stupid to save the planet, but too arrogant to avoid killing a lot of people in the developing world while trying. I often tell people that in my business, my clients (Fortune 500 Telecommunications companies) wouldn&#8217;t even invest $10M dollars based on the amount of evidence supporting AGW theory. The IPCC and UN are asking us to sign up for trillions!!!</p>
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		<title>By: John Levine</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-23</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Levine]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Apr 2010 18:47:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-23</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Robin,

Well said. The self-examination that is going on in a small part of the AGW clique demonstrates what you are saying, to wit: the recent comments of Nordhaus, Shellenberger, Lovelock et al. The constant refrain of &quot;consensus&quot; was always a falsehood to dominate the argument by an appeal to an non-existant authority. And the debate, in fact, had not been engaged in for 20 years but rather an increasingly shrill scientific complex feeding at government troughs left the rails of science and expected everyone to bow. Science is advanced by skepticism, and skeptics, not consensus. The Jones, Briffa, and Manns of this world do not need to sharpen their rhetorical skills, but remedial science.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin,</p>
<p>Well said. The self-examination that is going on in a small part of the AGW clique demonstrates what you are saying, to wit: the recent comments of Nordhaus, Shellenberger, Lovelock et al. The constant refrain of &#8220;consensus&#8221; was always a falsehood to dominate the argument by an appeal to an non-existant authority. And the debate, in fact, had not been engaged in for 20 years but rather an increasingly shrill scientific complex feeding at government troughs left the rails of science and expected everyone to bow. Science is advanced by skepticism, and skeptics, not consensus. The Jones, Briffa, and Manns of this world do not need to sharpen their rhetorical skills, but remedial science.</p>
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		<title>By: RobinAtl</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-19</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RobinAtl]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Mar 2010 00:42:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-19</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Actually this has been a good exercise for me, and I feel like I am actually learning something about how to more effectively frame my arguments. I consider myself a skeptic because I have actually looked at the &quot;evidence&quot; and concluded for myself that we don&#039;t actually understand the climate well enough to say if the warming is a natural cycle or if the human influence is affecting those cycles in ways that will cause a crisis. My bias right now is that the earth will continue to do what it has been doing despite the influence of man because in the actual observed temperatures (especially the satellite record) that is what we see happening. Since 1880, three very strong cycles of approx 30 years warming, and 30 years cooling, with us now entering the fourth cooling cycle, despite the fact that man made emissions of CO2 continue to rise. What would it take to convince me that man was having a strong influence? Evidence that the natural cycles have been changed, AND we can definitely eliminate natural causes. Until I see THAT evidence I will remain a skeptic.  The one thing that has really turned me off to the Warmist position is that whenever I see them in a debate all I hear is appeals to authority, which if you really dig under the covers is not 2500 scientists, it is more like 48 scientists, many of whom are in the CRU Climategate emails. AND, ad hominem attacks, (WHICH I HATE) AND which again if you check credentials, I would put Singer, Lindzen, Choi, Cristy up against Mann, Briffa, Jones ANY day and twice on Sunday, because they have long records of humility, and being open to evindence based arguments.  ALSO, I have yet to see a warmist argument based on actual data and not the predictions of some computer model I am a Technology consultant and I work with financial and network models all the time and models are frameworks for undertanding complex systems, but they are NOT evidence. Only actual measurements can count as evidence, and on that count the Warmist arguments fail pretty badly IMO.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Actually this has been a good exercise for me, and I feel like I am actually learning something about how to more effectively frame my arguments. I consider myself a skeptic because I have actually looked at the &#8220;evidence&#8221; and concluded for myself that we don&#8217;t actually understand the climate well enough to say if the warming is a natural cycle or if the human influence is affecting those cycles in ways that will cause a crisis. My bias right now is that the earth will continue to do what it has been doing despite the influence of man because in the actual observed temperatures (especially the satellite record) that is what we see happening. Since 1880, three very strong cycles of approx 30 years warming, and 30 years cooling, with us now entering the fourth cooling cycle, despite the fact that man made emissions of CO2 continue to rise. What would it take to convince me that man was having a strong influence? Evidence that the natural cycles have been changed, AND we can definitely eliminate natural causes. Until I see THAT evidence I will remain a skeptic.  The one thing that has really turned me off to the Warmist position is that whenever I see them in a debate all I hear is appeals to authority, which if you really dig under the covers is not 2500 scientists, it is more like 48 scientists, many of whom are in the CRU Climategate emails. AND, ad hominem attacks, (WHICH I HATE) AND which again if you check credentials, I would put Singer, Lindzen, Choi, Cristy up against Mann, Briffa, Jones ANY day and twice on Sunday, because they have long records of humility, and being open to evindence based arguments.  ALSO, I have yet to see a warmist argument based on actual data and not the predictions of some computer model I am a Technology consultant and I work with financial and network models all the time and models are frameworks for undertanding complex systems, but they are NOT evidence. Only actual measurements can count as evidence, and on that count the Warmist arguments fail pretty badly IMO.</p>
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		<title>By: jeangoodwin</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-18</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jeangoodwin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 23:03:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-18</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi, Robin:  One of the reasons I&#039;m interested in big political controversies is that they are one of the few places where we meet up with people who have very, very different deep beliefs from ourselves.  I hope all citizens are (as you say) emotionally invested in their views--that&#039;s what keeps democracy strong.  Of course, it&#039;s also important to make sure our views are right!

Another thing I&#039;ve been thinking is that although it&#039;s relatively easy to see other people&#039;s biases from the outside, it&#039;s very difficult to actually persuade them of this and get them to correct themselves.  At least one purpose of debate is just that:  to get other people to see their own views more clearly.  Still, even sharp debate is unlikely to have many positive effects in the short term.  So an additional solution may be for each of us to spend some time examining our own passions, and seeing what we ourselves are not noticing.  This is sort of the &quot;log in our own eyes&quot; advice.

Thanks for the kind words--always appreciated by a blogger!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, Robin:  One of the reasons I&#8217;m interested in big political controversies is that they are one of the few places where we meet up with people who have very, very different deep beliefs from ourselves.  I hope all citizens are (as you say) emotionally invested in their views&#8211;that&#8217;s what keeps democracy strong.  Of course, it&#8217;s also important to make sure our views are right!</p>
<p>Another thing I&#8217;ve been thinking is that although it&#8217;s relatively easy to see other people&#8217;s biases from the outside, it&#8217;s very difficult to actually persuade them of this and get them to correct themselves.  At least one purpose of debate is just that:  to get other people to see their own views more clearly.  Still, even sharp debate is unlikely to have many positive effects in the short term.  So an additional solution may be for each of us to spend some time examining our own passions, and seeing what we ourselves are not noticing.  This is sort of the &#8220;log in our own eyes&#8221; advice.</p>
<p>Thanks for the kind words&#8211;always appreciated by a blogger!</p>
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		<title>By: RobinAtl</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-17</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RobinAtl]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 21:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-17</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jean,

Thanks, I think this whole series is great from a teaching perspective about the art of rhetoric. I just think that the statement I highlighted points out how deeply held beliefs tend to make people gloss over or explain away major logical faults with their position. The hardest thing for anyone to do is have an open mind about something in which they are emotionally invested. Given that so many people have spent almost their entire academic careers supported by government grants, not to understand how the climate works, but to prove that man is affecting it, shows how bias was built in from the very structure of the incentive system of the IPCC. That&#039;s why I think the skeptic side has so many retired scientists. They have nothing to lose now by speaking out about the significant logical holes in AGW theory. Younger scientists have a SIGNIFICANT amount to lose by doing so.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jean,</p>
<p>Thanks, I think this whole series is great from a teaching perspective about the art of rhetoric. I just think that the statement I highlighted points out how deeply held beliefs tend to make people gloss over or explain away major logical faults with their position. The hardest thing for anyone to do is have an open mind about something in which they are emotionally invested. Given that so many people have spent almost their entire academic careers supported by government grants, not to understand how the climate works, but to prove that man is affecting it, shows how bias was built in from the very structure of the incentive system of the IPCC. That&#8217;s why I think the skeptic side has so many retired scientists. They have nothing to lose now by speaking out about the significant logical holes in AGW theory. Younger scientists have a SIGNIFICANT amount to lose by doing so.</p>
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		<title>By: John B</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-14</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John B]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 15:34:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-14</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Micheal Mann has also made some very questionable statements &quot;proving&quot; Global Warming including saying there isn&#039;t a 20 or 30 year time frame over the last 50 where it was cooling. That is 40-60% of the timeframe!!! So in his world if something doesn&#039;t happen at least 40% of the time it doesn&#039;t happen at all! This is particularly bad when the arguement agaist AGW is that nature has multi-decade cycles. 50 years is not nearly enough. Warmer than 150 years ago? I should hope as The Little Ice Age ended around that time!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Micheal Mann has also made some very questionable statements &#8220;proving&#8221; Global Warming including saying there isn&#8217;t a 20 or 30 year time frame over the last 50 where it was cooling. That is 40-60% of the timeframe!!! So in his world if something doesn&#8217;t happen at least 40% of the time it doesn&#8217;t happen at all! This is particularly bad when the arguement agaist AGW is that nature has multi-decade cycles. 50 years is not nearly enough. Warmer than 150 years ago? I should hope as The Little Ice Age ended around that time!</p>
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		<title>By: John B</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-13</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John B]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 15:25:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-13</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[he problem is I can&#039;t do all the studies myself. Weather science is dependent on gatekeepers. A scientist  can&#039;t take temperatures and wind speeds all over the world by himself, he has to rely on the gatekeepers which look very compromised. I have to have trust in the people who process the information, which Climategate and the many scandals following it destroyed. The IPPC has been proven to have made exaggeration after exaggeration so why should I trust them? If the CRU tainted the data then nothing that relies on it can be trusted.  The CRU even through out the raw data which is a HUGE problem in science. Even if you are honest it is harder to find your mistakes (and being human you WILL make them) if you have no raw data to compare it with.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>he problem is I can&#8217;t do all the studies myself. Weather science is dependent on gatekeepers. A scientist  can&#8217;t take temperatures and wind speeds all over the world by himself, he has to rely on the gatekeepers which look very compromised. I have to have trust in the people who process the information, which Climategate and the many scandals following it destroyed. The IPPC has been proven to have made exaggeration after exaggeration so why should I trust them? If the CRU tainted the data then nothing that relies on it can be trusted.  The CRU even through out the raw data which is a HUGE problem in science. Even if you are honest it is harder to find your mistakes (and being human you WILL make them) if you have no raw data to compare it with.</p>
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		<title>By: jeangoodwin</title>
		<link>http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/2010/03/17/morano-analysis-7-scientific-consensus/#comment-12</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jeangoodwin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Mar 2010 12:34:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scientistscitizens.wordpress.com/?p=102#comment-12</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi, Robin:  I&#039;m trying to make a distinction between two different methods of reaching a conclusion:

1.  Weighing all the evidence oneself (in this case, all the scientific studies), and reaching an overall conclusion.

2.  Figuring out whether you should &lt;em&gt;trust&lt;/em&gt; the person who&#039;s telling you something, and believing what they tell you.

In these posts, I&#039;m focusing only on method #2.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, Robin:  I&#8217;m trying to make a distinction between two different methods of reaching a conclusion:</p>
<p>1.  Weighing all the evidence oneself (in this case, all the scientific studies), and reaching an overall conclusion.</p>
<p>2.  Figuring out whether you should <em>trust</em> the person who&#8217;s telling you something, and believing what they tell you.</p>
<p>In these posts, I&#8217;m focusing only on method #2.</p>
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